New Jersey Devils at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals2
- Dougie HamiltonAssists2
- Jesper BrattPoints2
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Marcus FolignoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Marcus Foligno Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (12), Vincent Hinostroza (5)5–2
- P39:39Ondrej Palat Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (16)5–1
- P37:49Jesper Bratt Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Dougie Hamilton (7), Brenden Dillon (9)4–1
- P37:28Jesper Bratt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (6), Jack Hughes (17)3–1
- P219:52Ondrej Palat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (22), Jonas Siegenthaler (5)2–1
- P213:41Ryan Hartman Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (18), Marcus Johansson (21)1–1
- P110:07Dawson Mercer Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:07Dawson Mercer Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (21)NJ 1 – 0 MIN · NJ 40% → 56% +16NJ 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P213:41Ryan Hartman Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (18), Marcus Johansson (21)NJ 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 36% → 57% +22MIN 36% → 57%+22 pts
- P219:52Ondrej Palat Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (22), Jonas Siegenthaler (5)NJ 2 – 1 MIN · NJ 44% → 68% +24NJ 44% → 68%+24 pts
- P37:28Jesper Bratt Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (6), Jack Hughes (17)NJ 3 – 1 MIN · NJ 75% → 93% +18NJ 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P37:49Jesper Bratt Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Dougie Hamilton (7), Brenden Dillon (9)NJ 4 – 1 MIN · NJ 93% → 99% +6NJ 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML NJ +145 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 63.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- NJ +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | 0 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +95 Elo | MIN 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.54th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3211–13 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 32 |
| 1st of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 15278th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–28 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–21 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 16–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 5–0 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.