New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals2
- Tony DeAngeloAssists2
- Simon HolmstromPoints3
Wild- Ben JonesGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Quinn HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:34Simon Holmstrom Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tony DeAngelo (17), Jonathan Drouin (17)4–3
- P219:34Casey Cizikas Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (11)3–3
- P28:26Kirill Kaprizov Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Daemon Hunt (3), Quinn Hughes (36)2–3
- P21:29Simon Holmstrom Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (16)2–2
- P115:25Matt Boldy Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (35), Mats Zuccarello (16)1–2
- P14:18Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (7) , assists: none1–1
- P12:51Ben Jones Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (17), Quinn Hughes (34)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:25Matt Boldy Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (35), Mats Zuccarello (16)NYI 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 57% → 73% +16MIN 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P21:29Simon Holmstrom Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (16)NYI 2 – 2 MIN · NYI 27% → 43% +17NYI 27% → 43%+17 pts
- P28:26Kirill Kaprizov Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Daemon Hunt (3), Quinn Hughes (36)NYI 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 56% → 74% +18MIN 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P219:34Casey Cizikas Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Simon Holmstrom (11)NYI 3 – 3 MIN · NYI 23% → 45% +22NYI 23% → 45%+22 pts
- OT1:34Simon Holmstrom Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tony DeAngelo (17), Jonathan Drouin (17)NYI 4 – 3 MIN · NYI 48% → 93% +45NYI 48% → 93%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML NYI +130 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- NYI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +76 Elo | MIN 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.73rd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.54th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 3210–10 | Road vs home | 13–97th of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 20th of 321488 | Elo rating | 15307th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–20 | 25–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 22–8 | 16–4 |
| Overs–unders | 20–24 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–4 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.