New York Islanders at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Scott MayfieldAssists1
- Simon HolmstromPoints1
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Filip Forsberg Goal Backhand0–1
- P219:19Ryan O'Reilly Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (2)1–1
- P212:14Simon Holmstrom Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (6), Mathew Barzal (25)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:14Simon Holmstrom Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Mayfield (6), Mathew Barzal (25)NYI 1 – 0 NSH · NYI 46% → 67% +21NYI 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P219:19Ryan O'Reilly Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (2)NYI 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 30% → 54% +24NSH 30% → 54%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 56%
- ML NYI +120 / NSH -142
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 51.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -129
- NYI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +8 Elo | NSH 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.0%23rd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 9th of 3210–9 | Road vs home | 9–1124th of 32 |
| 5th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 32 |
| 19th of 321490 | Elo rating | 146428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–20 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 21–8 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.