Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists1
- Mikko RantanenPoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists3
- Tyler ToffoliPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:58Tyler Toffoli Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (18), Macklin Celebrini (46)4–5
- P315:01Adam Gaudette Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Sam Dickinson (4), Collin Graf (12)4–4
- P39:28Tyler Toffoli Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (45), Dmitry Orlov (21)4–3
- P37:53Mikko Rantanen Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (10), Nils Lundkvist (3)4–2
- P219:01Kyle Capobianco Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (8), Jason Robertson (28)3–2
- P214:49Jeff Skinner Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (6), Adam Gaudette (7)2–2
- P24:44Alexander Wennberg Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (44), Tyler Toffoli (18)2–1
- P119:03Jason Robertson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (43), Roope Hintz (21)2–0
- P17:33Justin Hryckowian Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:33Justin Hryckowian Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 1 – 0 SJ · DAL 59% → 73% +14DAL 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P214:49Jeff Skinner Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (6), Adam Gaudette (7)DAL 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 24% → 44% +20SJ 24% → 44%+20 pts
- P219:01Kyle Capobianco Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (8), Jason Robertson (28)DAL 3 – 2 SJ · DAL 56% → 78% +22DAL 56% → 78%+22 pts
- P315:01Adam Gaudette Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Sam Dickinson (4), Collin Graf (12)DAL 4 – 4 SJ · SJ 9% → 47% +38SJ 9% → 47%+38 pts
- OT1:58Tyler Toffoli Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (18), Macklin Celebrini (46)DAL 4 – 5 SJ · SJ 48% → 94% +46SJ 48% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML DAL -162 / SJ +136
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 61.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -146
- SJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +81 Elo | DAL 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 44.8%32nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%20th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214–9 | Road vs home | 12–1120th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321548 | Elo rating | 143131st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–26 | 29–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 29–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 8–0 SJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.