Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Jakob ChychrunAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41
Roope Hintz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1 - P317:41Alex Ovechkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (23), Jakob Chychrun (17)3–1
- P313:31Wyatt Johnston Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (9)3–0
- P22:37Sam Steel Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (14), Matt Duchene (6)2–0
- P13:06Radek Faksa Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:06Radek Faksa Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (14)DAL 1 – 0 WSH · DAL 47% → 62% +15DAL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P22:37Sam Steel Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (14), Matt Duchene (6)DAL 2 – 0 WSH · DAL 66% → 81% +15DAL 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P313:31Wyatt Johnston Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (9)DAL 3 – 0 WSH · DAL 99% → >99% +1DAL 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P317:41Alex Ovechkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (23), Jakob Chychrun (17)DAL 3 – 1 WSH · WSH <1% → <1% +0WSH <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P319:41Roope Hintz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: noneDAL 4 – 1 WSH · DAL 100% → 100% +0DAL 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML DAL +102 / WSH -122
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.6%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -111
- DAL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +46 Elo | WSH 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 50.9%12th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 4th of 3213–9 | Road vs home | 13–1015th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321543 | Elo rating | 15248th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–26 | 25–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.