Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Roope HintzGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Roope HintzPoints1
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Chris KreiderPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:39Jacob Trouba Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (23)1–3
- P317:48Roope Hintz Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (7), Wyatt Johnston (27)1–2
- P312:03Beckett Sennecke Goal (15) Backhand, assists: none0–2
- P23:36Chris Kreider Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (11), Radko Gudas (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:36Chris Kreider Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (11), Radko Gudas (8)DAL 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 47% → 66% +18ANA 47% → 66%+18 pts
- P312:03Beckett Sennecke Goal (15) Backhand, assists: noneDAL 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 83% → 98% +14ANA 83% → 98%+14 pts
- P317:48Roope Hintz Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (7), Wyatt Johnston (27)DAL 1 – 2 ANA · DAL <1% → 3% +3DAL <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P319:39Jacob Trouba Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (23)DAL 1 – 3 ANA · ANA >99% → 100% +0ANA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML DAL -125 / ANA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- ANA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +38 Elo | DAL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 88.0%31st of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3215–10 | Road vs home | 12–98th of 32 |
| 29th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321549 | Elo rating | 144929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–27 | 20–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 2–10 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 23–23 | 31–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–3 ANA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.