Dallas Stars at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Esa LindellAssists2
- Esa LindellPoints2
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists1
- Quinton ByfieldPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:42Matt Duchene Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (44), Sam Steel (12)3–1
- P316:14Jason Robertson Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (22), Esa Lindell (16)2–1
- P38:42Quinton Byfield Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (13), Brandt Clarke (17)1–1
- P13:44Wyatt Johnston Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (11), Esa Lindell (15)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:44Wyatt Johnston Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (11), Esa Lindell (15)DAL 1 – 0 LA · DAL 52% → 67% +15DAL 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P38:42Quinton Byfield Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (13), Brandt Clarke (17)DAL 1 – 1 LA · LA 19% → 49% +30LA 19% → 49%+30 pts
- P316:14Jason Robertson Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Roope Hintz (22), Esa Lindell (16)DAL 2 – 1 LA · DAL 51% → 93% +42DAL 51% → 93%+42 pts
- P319:42Matt Duchene Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (44), Sam Steel (12)DAL 3 – 1 LA · DAL >99% → 100% +0DAL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 52%
- ML DAL -120 / LA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 50.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -109
- LA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA 0 Elo | LA 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 51.2%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%11th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 7–1430th of 32 |
| 28th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321545 | Elo rating | 150415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–27 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–26 | 5–23 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–3 LA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.