Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Andre LeeGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists2
- Brandt ClarkePoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Adrian Kempe Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P39:20Connor McDavid Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (25), Evan Bouchard (34)3–3
- P36:21Alex Laferriere Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (16), Adrian Kempe (20)3–2
- P23:42Andre Lee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (19), Taylor Ward (2)2–2
- P21:07Leon Draisaitl Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (33)1–2
- P117:50Corey Perry Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (15), Andrei Kuzmenko (8)1–1
- P19:12Leon Draisaitl Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:50Corey Perry Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (15), Andrei Kuzmenko (8)LA 1 – 1 EDM · LA 25% → 40% +15LA 25% → 40%+15 pts
- P21:07Leon Draisaitl Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (33)LA 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 59% → 76% +16EDM 59% → 76%+16 pts
- P23:42Andre Lee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (19), Taylor Ward (2)LA 2 – 2 EDM · LA 24% → 41% +17LA 24% → 41%+17 pts
- P36:21Alex Laferriere Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (16), Adrian Kempe (20)LA 3 – 2 EDM · LA 44% → 73% +29LA 44% → 73%+29 pts
- P39:20Connor McDavid Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (25), Evan Bouchard (34)LA 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 23% → 55% +32EDM 23% → 55%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML LA +150 / EDM -180
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 65.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- EDM -161
- LA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −3 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +108 Elo | EDM 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 51.6%7th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 11th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 11–88th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15405th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–27 | 18–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–23 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 7–12 EDM in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.
- May 1LA 4 @ EDM 6PlayoffsPicked EDM 59%Hit
- Apr 29EDM 3 @ LA 1PlayoffsPicked LA 52%Miss
- Apr 27LA 3 @ EDM 4PlayoffsPicked EDM 57%Hit
- Apr 25LA 4 @ EDM 7PlayoffsPicked EDM 56%Hit
- Apr 23EDM 2 @ LA 6PlayoffsPicked LA 53%Hit
- Apr 21EDM 5 @ LA 6PlayoffsPicked LA 58%Hit
- Apr 14LA 5 @ EDM 0Picked LA 63%Hit
- Apr 5EDM 0 @ LA 3Picked LA 66%Hit