Dallas Stars at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Mikko RantanenPoints1
Mammoth- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists1
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:03John Marino Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (26)1–2
- P32:04Mikko Rantanen Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (28), Jason Robertson (29)1–1
- P219:53Nick Schmaltz Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: John Marino (19), Clayton Keller (31)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:53Nick Schmaltz Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: John Marino (19), Clayton Keller (31)DAL 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 52% → 76% +23UTA 52% → 76%+23 pts
- P32:04Mikko Rantanen Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (28), Jason Robertson (29)DAL 1 – 1 UTA · DAL 23% → 48% +24DAL 23% → 48%+24 pts
- P34:03John Marino Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (26)DAL 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 52% → 78% +26UTA 52% → 78%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 54%
- ML DAL +110 / UTA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- UTA: Elo 51.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.6 – 2.9 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +10 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +7 Elo | UTA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.36th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%18th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 32 |
| 31st of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321545 | Elo rating | 150514th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–28 | 21–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–27 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–1 UTA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.
