Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Calle JarnkrokGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Calle JarnkrokPoints1
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Jack McBainAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:54Daniil But Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (9), JJ Peterka (16)1–6
- P313:29Jack McBain Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Guenther (17), Michael Carcone (8)1–5
- P33:30Calle Jarnkrok Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (21)1–4
- P215:25JJ Peterka Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Daniil But (3), Ian Cole (13)0–4
- P26:44Dylan Guenther Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (9)0–3
- P25:26Dylan Guenther Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (8), Ian Cole (12)0–2
- P13:22Michael Carcone Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (12), John Marino (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:22Michael Carcone Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (12), John Marino (18)TOR 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 59% → 73% +14UTA 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P25:26Dylan Guenther Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (8), Ian Cole (12)TOR 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 75% → 87% +13UTA 75% → 87%+13 pts
- P26:44Dylan Guenther Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (9)TOR 0 – 3 UTA · UTA 88% → 95% +7UTA 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P215:25JJ Peterka Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Daniil But (3), Ian Cole (13)TOR 0 – 4 UTA · UTA 97% → >99% +2UTA 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P33:30Calle Jarnkrok Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (21)TOR 1 – 4 UTA · TOR <1% → 1% +1TOR <1% → 1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 59%
- ML TOR +136 / UTA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 56.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -146
- TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +9 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +45 Elo | UTA 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.84th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.28th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.4%19th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 29th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 11–914th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 7th of 321532 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–25 | 20–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–20 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–0 UTA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.