Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists2
- William NylanderPoints2
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:59William Nylander Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (20), Auston Matthews (15)4–3
- P312:55Martin Necas Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (45)3–3
- P310:24Auston Matthews Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (30), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (19)3–2
- P22:12Bobby McMann Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P117:53Brock Nelson Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (44), Cale Makar (39)1–2
- P116:12Cale Makar Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (36), Nathan MacKinnon (43)1–1
- P111:15Easton Cowan Goal (7) , assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:15Easton Cowan Goal (7) , assists: noneTOR 1 – 0 COL · TOR 34% → 50% +16TOR 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P116:12Cale Makar Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (36), Nathan MacKinnon (43)TOR 1 – 1 COL · COL 48% → 65% +17COL 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P310:24Auston Matthews Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (30), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (19)TOR 3 – 2 COL · TOR 43% → 77% +34TOR 43% → 77%+34 pts
- P312:55Martin Necas Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (45)TOR 3 – 3 COL · COL 18% → 56% +38COL 18% → 56%+38 pts
- OT3:59William Nylander Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (20), Auston Matthews (15)TOR 4 – 3 COL · TOR 48% → >99% +52TOR 48% → >99%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 68%
- ML TOR +195 / COL -238
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- COL: Elo 64.7%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -208
- TOR +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −3 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · COL: Trent Miner: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +105 Elo | COL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 69.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +1.81st of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 326–12 | Road vs home | 19–21st of 32 |
| 27th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 7th of 321529 | Elo rating | 16091st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–25 | 25–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 24–19 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 19–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.