Boston Bruins at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Mason LohreiGoals2
- Elias LindholmAssists2
- Mason LohreiPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan GreeneGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Wyatt KaiserPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:02Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (39), Elias Lindholm (24)5–2
- P39:01Mason Lohrei Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (11), Casey Mittelstadt (13)4–2
- P219:14Viktor Arvidsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (21), Casey Mittelstadt (12)3–2
- P214:51Mason Lohrei Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (12), Pavel Zacha (20)2–2
- P21:55Charlie McAvoy Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (23), David Pastrnak (38)1–2
- P118:14Wyatt Kaiser Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (8)0–2
- P116:14Ryan Greene Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (20), Connor Bedard (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:14Ryan Greene Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (20), Connor Bedard (28)BOS 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 47% → 64% +17CHI 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P21:55Charlie McAvoy Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (23), David Pastrnak (38)BOS 1 – 2 CHI · BOS 20% → 35% +15BOS 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P214:51Mason Lohrei Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (12), Pavel Zacha (20)BOS 2 – 2 CHI · BOS 30% → 52% +22BOS 30% → 52%+22 pts
- P219:14Viktor Arvidsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (21), Casey Mittelstadt (12)BOS 3 – 2 CHI · BOS 52% → 75% +23BOS 52% → 75%+23 pts
- P39:01Mason Lohrei Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Fraser Minten (11), Casey Mittelstadt (13)BOS 4 – 2 CHI · BOS 81% → 96% +15BOS 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML BOS -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −19 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +50 Elo | BOS 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 45.9%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 18th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 10–1529th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 16th of 321498 | Elo rating | 142832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–16 | 32–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 26–9 | 32–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 19–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.