Edmonton Oilers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Wyatt KaiserAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:15Leon Draisaitl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P319:07Evan Bouchard Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (11)3–1
- P314:46Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (6)2–1
- P20:16Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (26), Connor McDavid (50)2–0
- P114:41Zach Hyman Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (35), Connor McDavid (49)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:41Zach Hyman Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (35), Connor McDavid (49)EDM 1 – 0 CHI · EDM 60% → 75% +15EDM 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P20:16Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (26), Connor McDavid (50)EDM 2 – 0 CHI · EDM 75% → 87% +12EDM 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P314:46Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Kaiser (6)EDM 2 – 1 CHI · CHI <1% → 9% +9CHI <1% → 9%+9 pts
- P319:07Evan Bouchard Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (11)EDM 3 – 1 CHI · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:15Leon Draisaitl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 4 – 1 CHI · EDM >99% → 100% +0EDM >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML EDM -180 / CHI +150
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 57.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- EDM -161
- CHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.6 – 2.9 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +7 | EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +55 Elo | EDM 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 45.9%31st of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 24th of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 10–1327th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Elo rating | 143631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–27 | 32–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–24 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 32–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–18 | 19–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 6–1 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.