Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
PredatorsScoring summary
- P318:32Ryan Greene Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (13)3–0
- P311:01Nick Lardis Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (27), Kevin Korchinski (1)2–0
- P26:41Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (26), Artyom Levshunov (19)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:41Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (26), Artyom Levshunov (19)CHI 1 – 0 NSH · CHI 38% → 57% +19CHI 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P311:01Nick Lardis Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (27), Kevin Korchinski (1)CHI 2 – 0 NSH · CHI 78% → 96% +17CHI 78% → 96%+17 pts
- P318:32Ryan Greene Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (13)CHI 3 – 0 NSH · CHI >99% → >99% +0CHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 66%
- ML CHI +180 / NSH -218
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NSH: Elo 65.6%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- NSH -192
- CHI +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.7 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +2 | CHI: Drew Commesso: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +112 Elo | NSH 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 66.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.1% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 26th of 328–13 | Road vs home | 10–1121st of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321429 | Elo rating | 146728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–13 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–8 NSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.