Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Martin FehervaryAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Blackhawks- Oliver MooreGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Oliver MoorePoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:33Alex Ovechkin Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (13)5–1
- P212:38Justin Sourdif Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (21), Ryan Leonard (18)4–1
- P28:48Oliver Moore Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (11), Nick Lardis (1)3–1
- P118:54Ethen Frank Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (25), Nic Dowd (9)3–0
- P115:07Connor McMichael Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (17)2–0
- P14:03Anthony Beauvillier Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Martin Fehervary (12), John Carlson (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:03Anthony Beauvillier Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Martin Fehervary (12), John Carlson (24)WSH 1 – 0 CHI · WSH 55% → 69% +14WSH 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P115:07Connor McMichael Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (17)WSH 2 – 0 CHI · WSH 70% → 83% +13WSH 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P118:54Ethen Frank Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (25), Nic Dowd (9)WSH 3 – 0 CHI · WSH 84% → 92% +8WSH 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P28:48Oliver Moore Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (11), Nick Lardis (1)WSH 3 – 1 CHI · CHI 5% → 13% +8CHI 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P212:38Justin Sourdif Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (21), Ryan Leonard (18)WSH 4 – 1 CHI · WSH 88% → 96% +8WSH 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML WSH -135 / CHI +114
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -123
- CHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CHI: Drew Commesso: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +49 Elo | WSH 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 46.0%31st of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 22nd of 329–11 | Road vs home | 10–1223rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 32 |
| 9th of 321519 | Elo rating | 143431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–19 | 31–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–2 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.