Calgary Flames at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Blackhawks- Landon SlaggertAssists1
- Landon SlaggertPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:59Matt Coronato Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (9)3–1
- P16:05Mikael Backlund Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P13:14Yegor Sharangovich Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (19), Connor Zary (10)1–1
- P12:38Nick Foligno Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Dach (6), Landon Slaggert (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:38Nick Foligno Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Dach (6), Landon Slaggert (3)CGY 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 52% → 67% +14CHI 52% → 67%+14 pts
- P13:14Yegor Sharangovich Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (19), Connor Zary (10)CGY 1 – 1 CHI · CGY 33% → 48% +14CGY 33% → 48%+14 pts
- P16:05Mikael Backlund Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 2 – 1 CHI · CGY 48% → 63% +15CGY 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P318:59Matt Coronato Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (9)CGY 3 – 1 CHI · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blackhawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 52%
- ML CGY +100 / CHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 50.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -109
- CGY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.2 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +6 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +6 Elo | CHI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 45.9%31st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 32nd of 327–18 | Road vs home | 10–1429th of 32 |
| 27th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 26th of 321472 | Elo rating | 143232nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–20 | 32–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 32–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–19 | 19–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–4 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.