Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists3
- Jack EichelPoints3
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:25Mark Stone Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (35)3–2
- P318:33Brandt Clarke Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (21), Kevin Fiala (16)2–2
- P312:07Mitch Marner Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (27), Jack Eichel (34)2–1
- P36:24Kevin Fiala Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (8), Andrei Kuzmenko (9)1–1
- P23:56Braeden Bowman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (33), Shea Theodore (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:56Braeden Bowman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (33), Shea Theodore (17)VGK 1 – 0 LA · VGK 52% → 70% +18VGK 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P36:24Kevin Fiala Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (8), Andrei Kuzmenko (9)VGK 1 – 1 LA · LA 21% → 49% +28LA 21% → 49%+28 pts
- P312:07Mitch Marner Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (27), Jack Eichel (34)VGK 2 – 1 LA · VGK 51% → 85% +34VGK 51% → 85%+34 pts
- P318:33Brandt Clarke Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (21), Kevin Fiala (16)VGK 2 – 2 LA · LA <1% → 50% +49LA <1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT0:25Mark Stone Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (35)VGK 3 – 2 LA · VGK 51% → 91% +40VGK 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML VGK -122 / LA +102
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 47.5%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- VGK -111
- LA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.8 – 2.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +18 Elo | LA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.9% | Shot share | 51.3%8th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%11th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 12th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 7–1530th of 32 |
| 30th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 10th of 321519 | Elo rating | 150116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–29 | 17–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–28 | 5–23 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–5 LA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.