Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals2
- Tomas HertlAssists3
- Tomas HertlPoints5
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:59Tomas Hertl Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (16), Noah Hanifin (16)7–2
- P317:03Shea Theodore Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (21)6–2
- P216:29Alexander Wennberg Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (8), Tyler Toffoli (19)5–2
- P212:25Zach Whitecloud Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (20), Noah Hanifin (15)5–1
- P211:00Tomas Hertl Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (26), Pavel Dorofeyev (15)4–1
- P24:19Jack Eichel Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (25)3–1
- P110:57Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (19), Mark Stone (24)2–1
- P19:33Collin Graf Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (7)1–1
- P17:19Jack Eichel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (20), Jeremy Lauzon (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:19Jack Eichel Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (20), Jeremy Lauzon (7)VGK 1 – 0 SJ · VGK 56% → 71% +15VGK 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P19:33Collin Graf Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (7)VGK 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 29% → 44% +15SJ 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P110:57Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (19), Mark Stone (24)VGK 2 – 1 SJ · VGK 56% → 71% +15VGK 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P24:19Jack Eichel Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (25)VGK 3 – 1 SJ · VGK 72% → 86% +13VGK 72% → 86%+13 pts
- P211:00Tomas Hertl Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (26), Pavel Dorofeyev (15)VGK 4 – 1 SJ · VGK 88% → 95% +8VGK 88% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 56%
- ML VGK -142 / SJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 56.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -129
- SJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.4 – 3.1 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | SJ and VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −7 | VGK: Carl Lindbom: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +45 Elo | VGK 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.8% | Shot share | 45.1%32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 16th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 13–1116th of 32 |
| 25th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321514 | Elo rating | 143432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–29 | 30–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–28 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 30–13 |
| Overs–unders | 24–19 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 10–0 SJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.