St. Louis Blues at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- Mitch MarnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:36Mark Stone Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P33:33Jake Neighbours Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (22), Jordan Kyrou (10)2–3
- P215:48Shea Theodore Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (6), Mitch Marner (36)1–3
- P21:27Jack Eichel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (8)1–2
- P17:34Mitch Marner Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P10:53Robert Thomas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (13), Colton Parayko (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:53Robert Thomas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (13), Colton Parayko (12)STL 1 – 0 VGK · STL 30% → 43% +14STL 30% → 43%+14 pts
- P17:34Mitch Marner Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 69% +15VGK 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P21:27Jack Eichel Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (8)STL 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 67% → 81% +15VGK 67% → 81%+15 pts
- P215:48Shea Theodore Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (6), Mitch Marner (36)STL 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 82% → 93% +11VGK 82% → 93%+11 pts
- P33:33Jake Neighbours Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (22), Jordan Kyrou (10)STL 2 – 3 VGK · STL 5% → 16% +12STL 5% → 16%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 71%
- ML STL +225 / VGK -278
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 65.2%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- VGK -239
- STL +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +109 Elo | VGK 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 69.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 53.7%3rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.4%29th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 29th of 327–14 | Road vs home | 9–1226th of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321470 | Elo rating | 151110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–25 | 13–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–18 | 7–28 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 23–22 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–5 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.