Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Golden Knights- Shea TheodoreGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists1
- Shea TheodorePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38Filip Forsberg Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (28), Roman Josi (20)2–7
- P315:12Keegan Kolesar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Tomas Hertl (23), Braeden Bowman (11)1–7
- P313:16Mitch Marner Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (6), Akira Schmid (1)1–6
- P312:26Cole Reinhardt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (3), Tanner Laczynski (1)1–5
- P38:52Mark Stone Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (39), Zach Whitecloud (5)1–4
- P35:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (39)1–3
- P218:22Shea Theodore Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (8), Keegan Kolesar (8)1–2
- P217:17Alexander Holtz Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (18), Cole Reinhardt (4)1–1
- P114:10Luke Evangelista Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Roman Josi (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:10Luke Evangelista Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Roman Josi (19)NSH 1 – 0 VGK · NSH 36% → 53% +16NSH 36% → 53%+16 pts
- P217:17Alexander Holtz Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (18), Cole Reinhardt (4)NSH 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 37% → 60% +23VGK 37% → 60%+23 pts
- P218:22Shea Theodore Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (8), Keegan Kolesar (8)NSH 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 60% → 80% +21VGK 60% → 80%+21 pts
- P35:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (39)NSH 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 83% → 96% +13VGK 83% → 96%+13 pts
- P38:52Mark Stone Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (39), Zach Whitecloud (5)NSH 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 97% → >99% +3VGK 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 66%
- ML NSH +180 / VGK -218
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 66.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -192
- NSH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.8 – 3.7 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +119 Elo | VGK 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 68.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 18th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 11–1223rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 32 |
| 27th of 321474 | Elo rating | 15248th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–23 | 15–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 9–30 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–3 VGK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.