Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals3
- Roman JosiAssists3
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints4
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:41Michael McCarron Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–3
- P317:04Steven Stamkos Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (16), Roman Josi (18)6–3
- P315:13Filip Forsberg Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (27), Roman Josi (17)5–3
- P31:09Martin Necas Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (46), Artturi Lehkonen (20)4–3
- P218:04Michael Bunting Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (12)4–2
- P213:01Ryan O'Reilly Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (27), Roman Josi (16)3–2
- P111:16Brock Nelson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (16), Sam Malinski (21)2–2
- P17:32Ryan O'Reilly Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (26), Filip Forsberg (18)2–1
- P11:24Brock Nelson Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Brent Burns (16), Valeri Nichushkin (16)1–1
- P10:30Ryan O'Reilly Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:32Ryan O'Reilly Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (26), Filip Forsberg (18)NSH 2 – 1 COL · NSH 28% → 42% +14NSH 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P111:16Brock Nelson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (16), Sam Malinski (21)NSH 2 – 2 COL · COL 56% → 71% +15COL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P213:01Ryan O'Reilly Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (27), Roman Josi (16)NSH 3 – 2 COL · NSH 34% → 55% +21NSH 34% → 55%+21 pts
- P218:04Michael Bunting Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (12)NSH 4 – 2 COL · NSH 59% → 80% +21NSH 59% → 80%+21 pts
- P31:09Martin Necas Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (46), Artturi Lehkonen (20)NSH 4 – 3 COL · COL 17% → 38% +21COL 17% → 38%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 73%
- ML NSH +260 / COL -325
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- COL: Elo 72.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -275
- NSH +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −3 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +170 Elo | COL 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +1.81st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 56.0%2nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 92.0%1st of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 329–11 | Road vs home | 19–31st of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 28th of 321466 | Elo rating | 16051st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–23 | 25–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 24–20 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 5–5 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.