Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints3
Predators- Roman JosiGoals2
- Brady SkjeiAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:43Roman Josi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (13), Ryan O'Reilly (26)3–4
- P213:50Roman Josi Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (14)3–3
- P213:12Zach Hyman Goal (16) Poke, assists: Leon Draisaitl (42), Connor McDavid (52)3–2
- P27:20Leon Draisaitl Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (6), Vasily Podkolzin (10)2–2
- P23:03Erik Haula Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Matthew Wood (7), Adam Wilsby (6)1–2
- P117:06Zach Hyman Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (41), Connor McDavid (51)1–1
- P12:45Steven Stamkos Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:03Erik Haula Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Matthew Wood (7), Adam Wilsby (6)EDM 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 46% → 64% +18NSH 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P27:20Leon Draisaitl Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (6), Vasily Podkolzin (10)EDM 2 – 2 NSH · EDM 34% → 54% +19EDM 34% → 54%+19 pts
- P213:12Zach Hyman Goal (16) Poke, assists: Leon Draisaitl (42), Connor McDavid (52)EDM 3 – 2 NSH · EDM 53% → 74% +20EDM 53% → 74%+20 pts
- P213:50Roman Josi Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (14)EDM 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 26% → 47% +20NSH 26% → 47%+20 pts
- OT3:43Roman Josi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (13), Ryan O'Reilly (26)EDM 3 – 4 NSH · NSH 49% → >99% +50NSH 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 55%
- ML EDM -135 / NSH +114
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 51.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -123
- NSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +12 Elo | EDM 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%20th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 18th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 11–1221st of 32 |
| 21st of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 32 |
| 4th of 321541 | Elo rating | 146328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–27 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–19 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 6–1 NSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.