Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:03Ethen Frank Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (20), Dylan Strome (24)2–3
- P33:29Roman Josi Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (11), Ryan O'Reilly (25)1–3
- P31:12Cole Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (15), Reid Schaefer (2)1–2
- P113:15Steven Stamkos Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (16), Roman Josi (14)1–1
- P15:56Alex Ovechkin Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (26), Ryan Leonard (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:56Alex Ovechkin Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (26), Ryan Leonard (19)WSH 1 – 0 NSH · WSH 54% → 69% +15WSH 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P113:15Steven Stamkos Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (16), Roman Josi (14)WSH 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 31% → 46% +16NSH 31% → 46%+16 pts
- P31:12Cole Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (15), Reid Schaefer (2)WSH 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 48% → 72% +25NSH 48% → 72%+25 pts
- P33:29Roman Josi Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (11), Ryan O'Reilly (25)WSH 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 74% → 91% +17NSH 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P39:03Ethen Frank Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (20), Dylan Strome (24)WSH 2 – 3 NSH · WSH 5% → 21% +16WSH 5% → 21%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML WSH -130 / NSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −5 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +51 Elo | WSH 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 16th of 3210–11 | Road vs home | 10–1221st of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 9th of 321523 | Elo rating | 146028th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–19 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 11–3 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–23 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 NSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.