Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- Matias MaccelliAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists3
- Jack EichelPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT2:44Jack Eichel Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (29)5–6
- P319:53Tomas Hertl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (38), Mark Stone (28)5–5
- P310:14Mark Stone Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Ivan Barbashev (21), Jack Eichel (37)5–4
- P38:58Scott Laughton Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (28), Steven Lorentz (9)5–3
- P32:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (38), Tomas Hertl (22)4–3
- P212:46John Tavares Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matias Maccelli (12), Matthew Knies (27)4–2
- P25:51Keegan Kolesar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (10), Noah Hanifin (17)3–2
- P19:57Auston Matthews Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (14), Troy Stecher (8)3–1
- P18:12Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (37), Jack Eichel (36)2–1
- P15:03William Nylander Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Matias Maccelli (11), Brandon Carlo (4)2–0
- P12:05Morgan Rielly Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (31), John Tavares (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:46John Tavares Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matias Maccelli (12), Matthew Knies (27)TOR 4 – 2 VGK · TOR 68% → 84% +16TOR 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P32:10Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (38), Tomas Hertl (22)TOR 4 – 3 VGK · VGK 10% → 27% +17VGK 10% → 27%+17 pts
- P38:58Scott Laughton Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (28), Steven Lorentz (9)TOR 5 – 3 VGK · TOR 79% → 95% +16TOR 79% → 95%+16 pts
- P319:53Tomas Hertl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (38), Mark Stone (28)TOR 5 – 5 VGK · VGK <1% → 50% +50VGK <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:44Jack Eichel Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (29)TOR 5 – 6 VGK · VGK 51% → 97% +46VGK 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 54%
- ML TOR +110 / VGK -130
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 51.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.6 – 2.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +18 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +11 Elo | VGK 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.5%30th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 29th of 327–13 | Road vs home | 10–1225th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 7th of 321528 | Elo rating | 15218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–26 | 15–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 9–29 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.