Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:22Travis Konecny Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P219:28Tomas Hertl Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (40), Mark Stone (30)1–1
- P13:46Travis Konecny Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:46Travis Konecny Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 1 – 0 VGK · PHI 34% → 48% +15PHI 34% → 48%+15 pts
- P219:28Tomas Hertl Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (40), Mark Stone (30)PHI 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 36% → 60% +24VGK 36% → 60%+24 pts
- P37:22Travis Konecny Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 2 – 1 VGK · PHI 42% → 72% +30PHI 42% → 72%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 67%
- ML PHI +190 / VGK -230
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 67.5%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -202
- PHI +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.7 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +14 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +127 Elo | VGK 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 54.0%3rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 88.4%29th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 32 |
| 7th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 28th of 321463 | Elo rating | 15277th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–19 | 16–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 10–30 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 28–19 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–4 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.