New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals3
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Mika ZibanejadPoints3
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Travis SanheimPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:01Trevor Zegras Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (5), Owen Tippett (14)6–3
- P216:48Travis Sanheim Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (26)6–2
- P214:31Artemi Panarin Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (18)6–1
- P28:25Mika Zibanejad Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (17), Scott Morrow (5)5–1
- P25:38Mika Zibanejad Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (36), Vincent Trocheck (18)4–1
- P18:25Brennan Othmann Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (14)3–1
- P17:26Mika Zibanejad Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (16), Braden Schneider (7)2–1
- P17:05Artemi Panarin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (17), Alexis Lafrenière (17)1–1
- P16:22Travis Konecny Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (25), Travis Sanheim (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:22Travis Konecny Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (25), Travis Sanheim (15)NYR 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 53% → 68% +15PHI 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P17:05Artemi Panarin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (17), Alexis Lafrenière (17)NYR 1 – 1 PHI · NYR 32% → 47% +15NYR 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P17:26Mika Zibanejad Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (16), Braden Schneider (7)NYR 2 – 1 PHI · NYR 47% → 62% +15NYR 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P18:25Brennan Othmann Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (14)NYR 3 – 1 PHI · NYR 62% → 76% +14NYR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P25:38Mika Zibanejad Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (36), Vincent Trocheck (18)NYR 4 – 1 PHI · NYR 82% → 92% +10NYR 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML NYR +105 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.2 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −18 | NYR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.53 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · PHI: Aleksei Kolosov: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +27 Elo | PHI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 4th of 3214–11 | Road vs home | 12–1220th of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321478 | Elo rating | 146828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–25 | 28–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–28 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 5–3 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.