Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists3
- Brady TkachukPoints4
Rangers- Gabe PerreaultGoals2
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Gabe PerreaultPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:11Tim Stützle Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (16), Jake Sanderson (26)8–4
- P315:58Alexis Lafrenière Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (35), Carson Soucy (5)7–4
- P310:44Noah Laba Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (16), Scott Morrow (4)7–3
- P38:20David Perron Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–2
- P35:26Gabe Perreault Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (25), J.T. Miller (15)6–2
- P218:55Gabe Perreault Goal (2) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (14), Mika Zibanejad (24)6–1
- P212:23Thomas Chabot Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (6), David Perron (14)6–0
- P25:57Jake Sanderson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Artem Zub (11), Nick Cousins (5)5–0
- P119:54Dylan Cozens Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (13), Brady Tkachuk (15)4–0
- P115:01Brady Tkachuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (12), Nick Jensen (9)3–0
- P14:53Nick Jensen Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (11), Dylan Cozens (21)2–0
- P12:18Drake Batherson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (20), Brady Tkachuk (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:18Drake Batherson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (20), Brady Tkachuk (14)OTT 1 – 0 NYR · OTT 53% → 67% +14OTT 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P14:53Nick Jensen Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (11), Dylan Cozens (21)OTT 2 – 0 NYR · OTT 67% → 80% +12OTT 67% → 80%+12 pts
- P115:01Brady Tkachuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (12), Nick Jensen (9)OTT 3 – 0 NYR · OTT 82% → 91% +9OTT 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P119:54Dylan Cozens Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (13), Brady Tkachuk (15)OTT 4 – 0 NYR · OTT 92% → 97% +5OTT 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P25:57Jake Sanderson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Artem Zub (11), Nick Cousins (5)OTT 5 – 0 NYR · OTT 98% → >99% +2OTT 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML OTT -122 / NYR +102
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 42.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- OTT -111
- NYR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −9 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +50 Elo | NYR 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%7th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 18th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 5–1631st of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 32 |
| 18th of 321494 | Elo rating | 148420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–28 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–24 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 19–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–5 NYR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.