Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Anthony CirelliAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Blackhawks- Ryan GreeneGoals1
- Oliver MooreAssists1
- Ryan GreenePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Dominic James Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Gage Goncalves Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Louis Crevier Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Frank Nazar Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Nikita Kucherov Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- P218:42Nikita Kucherov Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (22), Anthony Cirelli (18)1–1
- P117:42Ryan Greene Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Lardis (2), Oliver Moore (11)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:42Ryan Greene Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Lardis (2), Oliver Moore (11)TB 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 31% → 47% +17CHI 31% → 47%+17 pts
- P218:42Nikita Kucherov Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (22), Anthony Cirelli (18)TB 1 – 1 CHI · TB 40% → 64% +24TB 40% → 64%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 73%
- ML TB -310 / CHI +250
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TB: Elo 73.1%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -265
- CHI +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 2.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −19 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +174 Elo | TB 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 73.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 45.9%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 3218–8 | Road vs home | 11–1629th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321580 | Elo rating | 143232nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–24 | 34–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 10–0 | 34–14 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–3 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.