Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Jake NeighboursPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jordan Kyrou Goal Backhand0–1
- P211:01Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (45), Darren Raddysh (29)2–2
- P29:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (20), Darren Raddysh (28)1–2
- P117:33Nick Bjugstad Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (17)0–2
- P117:03Jake Neighbours Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (12), Cam Fowler (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:03Jake Neighbours Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (12), Cam Fowler (15)TB 0 – 1 STL · STL 38% → 55% +17STL 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P117:33Nick Bjugstad Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (17)TB 0 – 2 STL · STL 55% → 71% +16STL 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P29:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (20), Darren Raddysh (28)TB 1 – 2 STL · TB 22% → 40% +18TB 22% → 40%+18 pts
- P211:01Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (45), Darren Raddysh (29)TB 2 – 2 STL · TB 39% → 60% +21TB 39% → 60%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML TB -205 / STL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TB: Elo 61.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -181
- STL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 2.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +78 Elo | TB 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.931st of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.6%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–0 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 1st of 3217–7 | Road vs home | 11–1427th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321577 | Elo rating | 147326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–23 | 21–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–23 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 10–0 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–21 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.