Carolina Hurricanes at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes
Blues- Dalibor DvorskyGoals1
- Tyler TuckerAssists1
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints1
Scoring summary
- P212:49Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (11), Brayden Schenn (10)0–3
- P29:45Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (8), Tyler Tucker (7)0–2
- P23:09Nick Bjugstad Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Otto Stenberg (6), Justin Faulk (11)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:09Nick Bjugstad Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Otto Stenberg (6), Justin Faulk (11)CAR 0 – 1 STL · STL 41% → 59% +18STL 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P29:45Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (8), Tyler Tucker (7)CAR 0 – 2 STL · STL 62% → 79% +17STL 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P212:49Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (11), Brayden Schenn (10)CAR 0 – 3 STL · STL 81% → 92% +11STL 81% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML CAR -180 / STL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 52.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -161
- STL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +15 Elo | CAR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.2% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3212–9 | Road vs home | 10–1427th of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 4th of 321543 | Elo rating | 146827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–29 | 20–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–27 | 1–18 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.