San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Brandon HagelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:41Brandon Hagel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (29), Nikita Kucherov (49)1–4
- P23:17Jake Guentzel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic James (7), Gage Goncalves (10)1–3
- P21:49Anthony Cirelli Goal (13) Poke, assists: Brandon Hagel (21), Nikita Kucherov (48)1–2
- P115:10Brandon Hagel Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Cirelli (17), Nikita Kucherov (47)1–1
- P114:37Tyler Toffoli Goal (14) Deflected, assists: William Eklund (20), Alexander Wennberg (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:37Tyler Toffoli Goal (14) Deflected, assists: William Eklund (20), Alexander Wennberg (24)SJ 1 – 0 TB · SJ 30% → 46% +16SJ 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P115:10Brandon Hagel Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Cirelli (17), Nikita Kucherov (47)SJ 1 – 1 TB · TB 54% → 70% +16TB 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P21:49Anthony Cirelli Goal (13) Poke, assists: Brandon Hagel (21), Nikita Kucherov (48)SJ 1 – 2 TB · TB 68% → 83% +14TB 68% → 83%+14 pts
- P23:17Jake Guentzel Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic James (7), Gage Goncalves (10)SJ 1 – 3 TB · TB 83% → 92% +9TB 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P317:41Brandon Hagel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (29), Nikita Kucherov (49)SJ 1 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 73%
- ML SJ +250 / TB -310
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- TB: Elo 78.8%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -265
- SJ +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1579 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +11 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +228 Elo | TB 78.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 75.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.2% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 10th of 3212–11 | Road vs home | 12–910th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 30th of 321437 | Elo rating | 15792nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–16 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 32–15 | 10–0 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–4 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.