San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Pavol RegendaGoals1
- Pavol RegendaAssists1
- Pavol RegendaPoints2
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Martin FehervaryAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:11Ryan Leonard Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (27), Martin Fehervary (14)3–2
- P216:13Pavol Regenda Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (47), Collin Graf (13)3–1
- P214:53Collin Graf Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Pavol Regenda (1)2–1
- P213:27Zack Ostapchuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (22), William Eklund (19)1–1
- P210:58Dylan Strome Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (21), Jakob Chychrun (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:58Dylan Strome Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (21), Jakob Chychrun (18)SJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 58% → 76% +19WSH 58% → 76%+19 pts
- P213:27Zack Ostapchuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (22), William Eklund (19)SJ 1 – 1 WSH · SJ 23% → 43% +20SJ 23% → 43%+20 pts
- P214:53Collin Graf Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Pavol Regenda (1)SJ 2 – 1 WSH · SJ 43% → 65% +22SJ 43% → 65%+22 pts
- P216:13Pavol Regenda Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (47), Collin Graf (13)SJ 3 – 1 WSH · SJ 66% → 84% +18SJ 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P39:11Ryan Leonard Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (27), Martin Fehervary (14)SJ 3 – 2 WSH · WSH 5% → 23% +17WSH 5% → 23%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML SJ +145 / WSH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 67.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -156
- SJ +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +127 Elo | WSH 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 65.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.44th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.0% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%6th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 13th of 3210–10 | Road vs home | 14–1113th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321429 | Elo rating | 15228th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–15 | 26–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 30–14 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–20 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.