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Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, MNMT

Away

Canadiens

26-14-7

2–3

at

Home

Capitals

24-17-6

MTL 45%WSH 55%

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Capital One Arena · ESPN+, MNMT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored MTL favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTWSH50%MTL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Capitals

Scoring summary

  • OT4:21Connor McMichael Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (25), Rasmus Sandin (14)2–3
  • P318:06Ethen Frank Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (13), Anthony Beauvillier (7)2–2
  • P35:06Ethen Frank Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Matt Roy (13), Rasmus Sandin (12)2–1
  • P27:40Brendan Gallagher Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (9), Zachary Bolduc (8)2–0
  • P18:14Josh Anderson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P18:14Josh Anderson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 0 WSH · MTL 45% → 61% +16
  2. P27:40Brendan Gallagher Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (9), Zachary Bolduc (8)MTL 2 – 0 WSH · MTL 66% → 82% +16
  3. P35:06Ethen Frank Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Matt Roy (13), Rasmus Sandin (12)MTL 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 8% → 25% +17
  4. P318:06Ethen Frank Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (13), Anthony Beauvillier (7)MTL 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 2% → 51% +49
  5. OT4:21Connor McMichael Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (25), Rasmus Sandin (14)MTL 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 51% → >99% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Capitals 55%

LeanHit
MTL 45%WSH 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
WSH 55%
ML MTL +114 / WSH -135
Pre-line forecast
WSH 60%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WSH 63%
Ratings vs. market
+7.4 pts
WSH: Elo 62.5%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
WSH -123
MTL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MTL 3.1 – 3.4 WSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMTLWSHWhy
Team rating15051520Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30—MTL on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−7+2MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWSH +89 EloWSH 62.5%
Market-implied ratingsWSH 59.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWSH 59.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWSH 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
MTLStatWSH
5th of 323.4Goals scored3.311th of 32
24th of 323.3Goals allowed2.98th of 32
11th of 32+0.1Margin+0.46th of 32
20th of 3249.4%Shot share50.8%12th of 32
27th of 3288.5%Save percentage90.7%6th of 32
4th of 327–3Last 104–622nd of 32
4th of 3213–9Road vs home13–1115th of 32
10th of 321502Opponent Elo150015th of 32
14th of 321505Elo rating15209th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanadiensCapitals
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMTLWSH
Puck line25–2126–20
Last 108–25–5
Favorite6–1715–17
Underdog19–411–3
Overs–unders29–1722–24
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MTL 4–8 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.