San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Collin GrafPoints1
Red Wings- Marco KasperGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists3
- Lucas RaymondPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:28Marco Kasper Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (38)2–4
- P34:41Dylan Larkin Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (37), James van Riemsdyk (9)2–3
- P26:55J.T. Compher Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (4)2–2
- P21:58Collin Graf Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Nick Leddy (4), Sam Dickinson (5)2–1
- P19:54Will Smith Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (48), John Klingberg (8)1–1
- P16:18Alex DeBrincat Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (36), James van Riemsdyk (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:18Alex DeBrincat Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (36), James van Riemsdyk (8)SJ 0 – 1 DET · DET 59% → 73% +14DET 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P19:54Will Smith Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (48), John Klingberg (8)SJ 1 – 1 DET · SJ 26% → 41% +14SJ 26% → 41%+14 pts
- P21:58Collin Graf Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Nick Leddy (4), Sam Dickinson (5)SJ 2 – 1 DET · SJ 42% → 60% +18SJ 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P26:55J.T. Compher Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (4)SJ 2 – 2 DET · DET 38% → 57% +19DET 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P34:41Dylan Larkin Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Lucas Raymond (37), James van Riemsdyk (9)SJ 2 – 3 DET · DET 55% → 80% +25DET 55% → 80%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML SJ +140 / DET -166
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.1 pts
- DET: Elo 71.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -150
- SJ +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +4 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +156 Elo | DET 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 65.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.2% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 16–94th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 32 |
| 31st of 321432 | Elo rating | 150813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–15 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 31–14 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.