San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mario FerraroGoals1
- Igor ChernyshovAssists2
- Igor ChernyshovPoints2
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Eetu LuostarinenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:21Barclay Goodrow Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P30:43Eetu Luostarinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (17)3–1
- P26:12Mario Ferraro Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (8), Michael Misa (4)3–0
- P22:41Vincent Desharnais Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (7), Michael Misa (3)2–0
- P20:50Will Smith Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (9), Alexander Wennberg (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:50Will Smith Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (9), Alexander Wennberg (23)SJ 1 – 0 FLA · SJ 40% → 58% +18SJ 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P22:41Vincent Desharnais Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (7), Michael Misa (3)SJ 2 – 0 FLA · SJ 59% → 75% +17SJ 59% → 75%+17 pts
- P26:12Mario Ferraro Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Igor Chernyshov (8), Michael Misa (4)SJ 3 – 0 FLA · SJ 77% → 89% +12SJ 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P30:43Eetu Luostarinen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (17)SJ 3 – 1 FLA · FLA 4% → 13% +9FLA 4% → 13%+9 pts
- P317:21Barclay Goodrow Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSJ 4 – 1 FLA · SJ >99% → >99% +0SJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML SJ +154 / FLA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 68.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -165
- SJ +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +138 Elo | FLA 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 67.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.2% | Shot share | 52.4%6th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 88.5%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 12th of 3211–11 | Road vs home | 14–1112th of 32 |
| 4th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 32 |
| 31st of 321430 | Elo rating | 15386th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–16 | 17–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 7–26 |
| Underdog | 31–15 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–4 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.