Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Uvis BalinskisGoals1
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists1
- Uvis BalinskisPoints1
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals3
- Mark JankowskiAssists2
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:35Eric Robinson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (5), Mark Jankowski (6)1–9
- P318:23Taylor Hall Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (14)1–8
- P313:03Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (14), Jackson Blake (13)1–7
- P311:38Taylor Hall Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (13), Mark Jankowski (5)1–6
- P311:17Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (14), Andrei Svechnikov (24)1–5
- P34:08Andrei Svechnikov Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (13), Sebastian Aho (30)1–4
- P216:28Alexander Nikishin Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (29), Nikolaj Ehlers (24)1–3
- P213:10Mark Jankowski Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alexander Nikishin (14), Mike Reilly (6)1–2
- P21:19Uvis Balinskis Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (15), Sandis Vilmanis (1)1–1
- P118:35Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (10), Jordan Martinook (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:35Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (10), Jordan Martinook (8)FLA 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 60% → 75% +16CAR 60% → 75%+16 pts
- P21:19Uvis Balinskis Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (15), Sandis Vilmanis (1)FLA 1 – 1 CAR · FLA 24% → 41% +16FLA 24% → 41%+16 pts
- P213:10Mark Jankowski Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alexander Nikishin (14), Mike Reilly (6)FLA 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 58% → 77% +19CAR 58% → 77%+19 pts
- P216:28Alexander Nikishin Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (29), Nikolaj Ehlers (24)FLA 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 78% → 91% +13CAR 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P34:08Andrei Svechnikov Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (13), Sebastian Aho (30)FLA 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 94% → 99% +5CAR 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML FLA +150 / CAR -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -161
- FLA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +4 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +36 Elo | CAR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.35th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.8% | Shot share | 57.1%1st of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 88.5%29th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 8th of 3210–9 | Road vs home | 16–94th of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 5th of 321538 | Elo rating | 15384th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–29 | 17–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 15–28 |
| Underdog | 9–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 25–20 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 9–4 CAR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.
- Dec 23FLA 5 @ CAR 2Picked CAR 56%Miss
- Dec 19CAR 3 @ FLA 4Picked CAR 55%Miss
- May 28FLA 5 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 53%Hit
- May 26CAR 3 @ FLA 0PlayoffsPicked FLA 61%Miss
- May 24CAR 2 @ FLA 6PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- May 22FLA 5 @ CAR 0PlayoffsPicked CAR 56%Miss
- May 20FLA 5 @ CAR 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 55%Miss
- Jan 2CAR 3 @ FLA 1Picked FLA 53%Miss