Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals1
- Sam BennettAssists2
- Sam BennettPoints3
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals2
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists1
- Jakob ChychrunPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:26Carter Verhaeghe Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (21), A.J. Greer (9)5–2
- P318:40Anton Lundell Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (23)4–2
- P215:16Uvis Balinskis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (20), Sam Reinhart (22)3–2
- P211:40Sam Bennett Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (22), Niko Mikkola (7)2–2
- P210:04Jakob Chychrun Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (29), Nic Dowd (10)1–2
- P22:04Jakob Chychrun Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (16), John Carlson (28)1–1
- P113:23A.J. Greer Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (20), Aaron Ekblad (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:23A.J. Greer Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (20), Aaron Ekblad (16)FLA 1 – 0 WSH · FLA 42% → 58% +16FLA 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P22:04Jakob Chychrun Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (16), John Carlson (28)FLA 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 39% → 57% +18WSH 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P210:04Jakob Chychrun Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (29), Nic Dowd (10)FLA 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 57% → 75% +19WSH 57% → 75%+19 pts
- P211:40Sam Bennett Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (22), Niko Mikkola (7)FLA 2 – 2 WSH · FLA 24% → 44% +19FLA 24% → 44%+19 pts
- P215:16Uvis Balinskis Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (20), Sam Reinhart (22)FLA 3 – 2 WSH · FLA 44% → 66% +22FLA 44% → 66%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 59%
- ML FLA +136 / WSH -162
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 60.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -146
- FLA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −20 | +2 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +74 Elo | WSH 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 51.1%12th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 12th of 3210–10 | Road vs home | 14–1216th of 32 |
| 5th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 6th of 321532 | Elo rating | 15199th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–30 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–26 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–3 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.