Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Alex VlasicAssists2
- Alex VlasicPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:40Connor Bedard Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (7), Alex Vlasic (10)0–2
- P213:21Jason Dickinson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (9), Alex Vlasic (9)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:21Jason Dickinson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (9), Alex Vlasic (9)WPG 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 45% → 67% +21CHI 45% → 67%+21 pts
- P318:40Connor Bedard Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (7), Alex Vlasic (10)WPG 0 – 2 CHI · CHI >99% → >99% +1CHI >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 57%
- ML WPG -148 / CHI +124
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +51 Elo | WPG 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 46.0%31st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 30th of 328–15 | Road vs home | 10–1629th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 10th of 321516 | Elo rating | 142432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–26 | 32–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 32–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–18 | 20–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 7–1 CHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.