Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Oliver Ekman-LarssonGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists2
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints3
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists2
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:08Max Domi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23)4–3
- P315:33Bobby McMann Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (22), Morgan Rielly (23)3–3
- P35:58Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (13), Easton Cowan (8)2–3
- P32:28Nino Niederreiter Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (5), Luke Schenn (5)1–3
- P29:22Auston Matthews Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (16), Morgan Rielly (22)1–2
- P28:59Kyle Connor Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (25)0–2
- P22:23Alex Iafallo Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Logan Stanley (8), Vladislav Namestnikov (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:23Alex Iafallo Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Logan Stanley (8), Vladislav Namestnikov (4)TOR 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 56% → 73% +17WPG 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P32:28Nino Niederreiter Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (5), Luke Schenn (5)TOR 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 78% → 93% +15WPG 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P35:58Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (13), Easton Cowan (8)TOR 2 – 3 WPG · TOR 6% → 20% +14TOR 6% → 20%+14 pts
- P315:33Bobby McMann Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (22), Morgan Rielly (23)TOR 3 – 3 WPG · TOR 8% → 48% +40TOR 8% → 48%+40 pts
- OT3:08Max Domi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23)TOR 4 – 3 WPG · TOR 49% → 98% +49TOR 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 57%
- ML TOR +124 / WPG -148
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- WPG: Elo 55.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -134
- TOR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +3 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +40 Elo | WPG 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 48.5%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 30th of 327–14 | Road vs home | 11–1223rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 7th of 321525 | Elo rating | 151810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–26 | 21–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–19 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–1 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.