Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints4
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Ryan HartmanAssists1
- Marcus JohanssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:18Marcus Johansson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (24), Ryan Hartman (8)6–2
- P217:12Mark Scheifele Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (10), Kyle Connor (33)6–1
- P212:51Gabriel Vilardi Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (30), Mark Scheifele (35)5–1
- P29:33Logan Stanley Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P24:53Danila Yurov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (9), Vladimir Tarasenko (13)3–1
- P119:57Josh Morrissey Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (34), Jonathan Toews (11)3–0
- P119:49Tanner Pearson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (8), Dylan DeMelo (14)2–0
- P114:08Jonathan Toews Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (24), Mark Scheifele (33)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:08Jonathan Toews Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (24), Mark Scheifele (33)WPG 1 – 0 MIN · WPG 45% → 62% +16WPG 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P119:49Tanner Pearson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (8), Dylan DeMelo (14)WPG 2 – 0 MIN · WPG 63% → 78% +15WPG 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P119:57Josh Morrissey Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (34), Jonathan Toews (11)WPG 3 – 0 MIN · WPG 78% → 89% +11WPG 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P24:53Danila Yurov Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (9), Vladimir Tarasenko (13)WPG 3 – 1 MIN · MIN 9% → 20% +10MIN 9% → 20%+10 pts
- P29:33Logan Stanley Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: noneWPG 4 – 1 MIN · WPG 82% → 93% +10WPG 82% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML WPG +114 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- WPG +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +37 Elo | MIN 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.83rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.44th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.5%2nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 30th of 327–15 | Road vs home | 13–1116th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 12th of 321513 | Elo rating | 15209th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–25 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 9–18 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 16–4 |
| Overs–unders | 27–18 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 8–2 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.