New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals1
- Emil HeinemanAssists1
- Emil HeinemanPoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Adam LowryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:14Matthew Schaefer Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (26), Emil Heineman (8)4–5
- P219:40Adam Lowry Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (6), Dylan Samberg (8)3–5
- P212:23Dylan DeMelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (32), Vladislav Namestnikov (3)3–4
- P210:21Kyle MacLean Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (7)3–3
- P28:58Emil Heineman Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P27:40Anthony Duclair Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (16), Ryan Pulock (19)1–3
- P26:23Jonathan Toews Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (23), Kyle Connor (32)0–3
- P25:41Josh Morrissey Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (11), Adam Lowry (7)0–2
- P14:20Kyle Connor Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Alex Iafallo (9), Mark Scheifele (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:20Kyle Connor Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Alex Iafallo (9), Mark Scheifele (31)NYI 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 54% → 69% +14WPG 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P28:58Emil Heineman Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneNYI 2 – 3 WPG · NYI 14% → 28% +14NYI 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P210:21Kyle MacLean Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (7)NYI 3 – 3 WPG · NYI 28% → 47% +19NYI 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P212:23Dylan DeMelo Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (32), Vladislav Namestnikov (3)NYI 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 53% → 73% +20WPG 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P219:40Adam Lowry Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (6), Dylan Samberg (8)NYI 3 – 5 WPG · WPG 75% → 91% +15WPG 75% → 91%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML NYI +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 58.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +59 Elo | WPG 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 9th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 10–1224th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 151111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–20 | 20–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–12 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 23–8 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–3 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.