Chicago Blackhawks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jaccob SlavinAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Oliver Moore Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Connor Bedard Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Andrei Svechnikov Goal Snap Shot2–1
- P314:20Jackson Blake Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (15), Taylor Hall (15)3–3
- P313:38Connor Murphy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (14), Ilya Mikheyev (8)3–2
- P29:16Jordan Staal Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (9), Jaccob Slavin (2)2–2
- P24:35Nick Lardis Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (10), Oliver Moore (10)2–1
- P112:50Joel Nystrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (6)1–1
- P111:12Ilya Mikheyev Goal (9) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:50Joel Nystrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (6)CHI 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 54% → 70% +16CAR 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P24:35Nick Lardis Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (10), Oliver Moore (10)CHI 2 – 1 CAR · CHI 33% → 51% +18CHI 33% → 51%+18 pts
- P29:16Jordan Staal Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (9), Jaccob Slavin (2)CHI 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 46% → 66% +20CAR 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P313:38Connor Murphy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (14), Ilya Mikheyev (8)CHI 3 – 2 CAR · CHI 43% → 82% +40CHI 43% → 82%+40 pts
- P314:20Jackson Blake Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (15), Taylor Hall (15)CHI 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 16% → 57% +41CAR 16% → 57%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 72%
- ML CHI +240 / CAR -298
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 68.8%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -255
- CHI +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.6 – 3.9 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −10 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +138 Elo | CAR 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 73.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.0% | Shot share | 57.3%1st of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 28th of 329–13 | Road vs home | 18–92nd of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321429 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–16 | 19–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 33–14 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–29 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–4 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.