Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Rasmus DahlinPoints1
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:10Seth Jarvis Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (25), Sebastian Aho (35)1–2
- P17:04Andrei Svechnikov Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (34), Sean Walker (10)1–1
- P11:33Rasmus Dahlin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (17), Jason Zucker (14)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:33Rasmus Dahlin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (17), Jason Zucker (14)BUF 1 – 0 CAR · BUF 38% → 52% +15BUF 38% → 52%+15 pts
- P17:04Andrei Svechnikov Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (34), Sean Walker (10)BUF 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 46% → 62% +15CAR 46% → 62%+15 pts
- P32:10Seth Jarvis Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (25), Sebastian Aho (35)BUF 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 57% → 80% +23CAR 57% → 80%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML BUF +154 / CAR -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -165
- BUF +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.6 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +80 Elo | CAR 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.5% | Shot share | 57.2%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 17–93rd of 32 |
| 10th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–22 | 19–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 17–28 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 26–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–4 CAR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.