Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals3
- Tage ThompsonAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints5
Scoring summary
- P318:20Tage Thompson Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (17)3–5
- P35:12Tage Thompson Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (19)3–4
- P28:55Alex Tuch Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (24), Rasmus Dahlin (27)3–3
- P23:05Nick Suzuki Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (39), Cole Caufield (23)3–2
- P114:20Ivan Demidov Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (38), Nick Suzuki (37)2–2
- P110:30Josh Doan Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (23), Noah Ostlund (8)1–2
- P14:05Tage Thompson Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (7), Jason Zucker (11)1–1
- P13:11Cole Caufield Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:30Josh Doan Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (23), Noah Ostlund (8)MTL 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 47% → 63% +16BUF 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P114:20Ivan Demidov Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (38), Nick Suzuki (37)MTL 2 – 2 BUF · MTL 36% → 53% +16MTL 36% → 53%+16 pts
- P23:05Nick Suzuki Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (39), Cole Caufield (23)MTL 3 – 2 BUF · MTL 53% → 70% +18MTL 53% → 70%+18 pts
- P28:55Alex Tuch Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (24), Rasmus Dahlin (27)MTL 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 29% → 48% +19BUF 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P35:12Tage Thompson Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (19)MTL 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 48% → 76% +27BUF 48% → 76%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 53%
- ML MTL -125 / BUF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 49.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- BUF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | 0 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +3 Elo | BUF 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%8th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3213–10 | Road vs home | 15–82nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 15th of 321504 | Elo rating | 151112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–21 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 20–4 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–18 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 7–2 BUF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.