Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists3
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists2
- Ryan McLeodPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:46Mats Zuccarello Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (30), Filip Gustavsson (1)5–4
- P217:04Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (29), Mats Zuccarello (17)4–4
- P216:07Alex Tuch Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (25), Ryan McLeod (20)3–4
- P211:34Jack Quinn Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (28), Jason Zucker (13)3–3
- P210:07Peyton Krebs Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (16)3–2
- P21:08Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (10), Danila Yurov (11)3–1
- P119:52Ryan Hartman Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (37), Kirill Kaprizov (28)2–1
- P110:05Ryan McLeod Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Jack Quinn (16), Jason Zucker (12)1–1
- P19:19Marcus Foligno Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (14), Ben Jones (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:52Ryan Hartman Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (37), Kirill Kaprizov (28)MIN 2 – 1 BUF · MIN 47% → 65% +17MIN 47% → 65%+17 pts
- P211:34Jack Quinn Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (28), Jason Zucker (13)MIN 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 32% → 52% +20BUF 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P216:07Alex Tuch Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (25), Ryan McLeod (20)MIN 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 52% → 74% +22BUF 52% → 74%+22 pts
- P217:04Quinn Hughes Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (29), Mats Zuccarello (17)MIN 4 – 4 BUF · MIN 26% → 48% +22MIN 26% → 48%+22 pts
- OT1:46Mats Zuccarello Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (30), Filip Gustavsson (1)MIN 5 – 4 BUF · MIN 49% → 94% +45MIN 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 53%
- ML MIN +105 / BUF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 55.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +39 Elo | BUF 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%10th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3213–10 | Road vs home | 16–82nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 12th of 321515 | Elo rating | 151511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–23 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 26–22 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.