Carolina Hurricanes at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals3
- Sebastian AhoAssists3
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints3
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Cody GlassAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:52Andrei Svechnikov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (33), Seth Jarvis (15)4–1
- P38:33Jackson Blake Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (25), K'Andre Miller (18)3–1
- P34:27Timo Meier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (3), Dougie Hamilton (9)2–1
- P214:09Andrei Svechnikov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (32), Sean Walker (9)2–0
- P213:12Andrei Svechnikov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (31)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:12Andrei Svechnikov Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (31)CAR 1 – 0 NJ · CAR 51% → 71% +21CAR 51% → 71%+21 pts
- P214:09Andrei Svechnikov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (32), Sean Walker (9)CAR 2 – 0 NJ · CAR 72% → 87% +15CAR 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P34:27Timo Meier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (3), Dougie Hamilton (9)CAR 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 7% → 23% +16NJ 7% → 23%+16 pts
- P38:33Jackson Blake Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (25), K'Andre Miller (18)CAR 3 – 1 NJ · CAR 80% → 95% +15CAR 80% → 95%+15 pts
- P315:52Andrei Svechnikov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (33), Seth Jarvis (15)CAR 4 – 1 NJ · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 51%
- ML CAR -115 / NJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 48.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -104
- NJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.8 – 2.7 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −2 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +12 Elo | NJ 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.429th of 32 |
| 1st of 3257.3% | Shot share | 51.3%8th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 6th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 12–1014th of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 15064th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321544 | Elo rating | 148123rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–30 | 18–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 5–22 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–22 | 20–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 11–3 NJ in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 14.
- Jan 4CAR 3 @ NJ 1Picked CAR 53%Hit
- Oct 9NJ 3 @ CAR 6Picked CAR 61%Hit
- Apr 29NJ 4 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 27CAR 5 @ NJ 2PlayoffsPicked CAR 63%Hit
- Apr 25CAR 2 @ NJ 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 60%Miss
- Apr 22NJ 1 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 71%Hit
- Apr 20NJ 1 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 67%Hit
- Dec 28NJ 2 @ CAR 5Picked CAR 55%Hit