Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Travis KonecnyAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Bruins- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Casey MittelstadtAssists2
- Casey MittelstadtPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:19Matvei Michkov Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (7), Owen Tippett (16)3–6
- P316:30Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (32), Jonathan Aspirot (4)2–6
- P219:05Nikita Grebenkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (29)2–5
- P218:40Tanner Jeannot Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (7), Sean Kuraly (12)1–5
- P216:12Casey Mittelstadt Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Andrew Peeke (6), Fraser Minten (15)1–4
- P23:16Travis Konecny Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (22)1–3
- P22:27Fraser Minten Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (16)0–3
- P110:30Pavel Zacha Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (20), Jonathan Aspirot (3)0–2
- P19:49Viktor Arvidsson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (15), Fraser Minten (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:49Viktor Arvidsson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (15), Fraser Minten (14)PHI 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 59% → 73% +15BOS 59% → 73%+15 pts
- P110:30Pavel Zacha Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (20), Jonathan Aspirot (3)PHI 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 73% → 85% +11BOS 73% → 85%+11 pts
- P22:27Fraser Minten Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (16)PHI 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 87% → 94% +8BOS 87% → 94%+8 pts
- P23:16Travis Konecny Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (22)PHI 1 – 3 BOS · PHI 6% → 13% +8PHI 6% → 13%+8 pts
- P216:12Casey Mittelstadt Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Andrew Peeke (6), Fraser Minten (15)PHI 1 – 4 BOS · BOS 90% → 97% +7BOS 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML PHI +136 / BOS -162
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 66.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- PHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +4 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +116 Elo | BOS 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.29th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 47.6%25th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 20–92nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 27th of 321464 | Elo rating | 150216th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–21 | 34–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 27–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–21 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–4 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.