Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals3
- Noah JuulsenAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints3
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals1
- Cole SillingerAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:54Mathieu Olivier Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (17)3–5
- P316:32Sean Monahan Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (17), Kent Johnson (11)3–4
- P315:14Travis Konecny Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (17)3–3
- P34:08Travis Konecny Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (21), Jamie Drysdale (18)2–3
- P21:58Erik Gudbranson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (16), Charlie Coyle (23)1–3
- P119:40Kirill Marchenko Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (38), Adam Fantilli (21)1–2
- P19:03Travis Konecny Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (18), Noah Juulsen (8)1–1
- P10:38Charlie Coyle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (8), Zach Werenski (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:03Travis Konecny Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (18), Noah Juulsen (8)PHI 1 – 1 CBJ · PHI 34% → 49% +15PHI 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P119:40Kirill Marchenko Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (38), Adam Fantilli (21)PHI 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 68% +17CBJ 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P34:08Travis Konecny Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (21), Jamie Drysdale (18)PHI 2 – 3 CBJ · PHI 8% → 23% +16PHI 8% → 23%+16 pts
- P315:14Travis Konecny Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (17)PHI 3 – 3 CBJ · PHI 10% → 50% +40PHI 10% → 50%+40 pts
- P316:32Sean Monahan Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Damon Severson (17), Kent Johnson (11)PHI 3 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 94% +43CBJ 50% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 51%
- ML PHI -105 / CBJ -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CBJ: Elo 54.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.2 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −17 | PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +29 Elo | CBJ 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.224th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 17th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 13–1215th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 32 |
| 26th of 321467 | Elo rating | 149021st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–20 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–4 CBJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.