Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Jake GuentzelGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints4
Blue Jackets- Mason MarchmentGoals3
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Mason MarchmentPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:35Mason Marchment Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (20), Kirill Marchenko (25)5–8
- P318:54Jake Guentzel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (52), Anthony Cirelli (20)5–7
- P314:55Sean Monahan Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–7
- P218:57Charlie Coyle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (19), Zach Werenski (36)4–6
- P29:05Mason Marchment Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (35), Charlie Coyle (22)4–5
- P24:58Anthony Cirelli Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (51), Brandon Hagel (24)4–4
- P23:29Nikita Kucherov Goal (26) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (23), Anthony Cirelli (19)3–4
- P119:47Dmitri Voronkov Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: none2–4
- P118:33Adam Fantilli Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (24), Mason Marchment (12)2–3
- P110:01Darren Raddysh Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (50), Jake Guentzel (30)2–2
- P18:37Mason Marchment Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (2)1–2
- P17:48Jake Guentzel Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P15:47Cole Sillinger Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:01Darren Raddysh Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (50), Jake Guentzel (30)TB 2 – 2 CBJ · TB 35% → 51% +16TB 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P118:33Adam Fantilli Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (24), Mason Marchment (12)TB 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 49% → 66% +17CBJ 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P24:58Anthony Cirelli Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (51), Brandon Hagel (24)TB 4 – 4 CBJ · TB 32% → 51% +18TB 32% → 51%+18 pts
- P29:05Mason Marchment Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (35), Charlie Coyle (22)TB 4 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 49% → 69% +20CBJ 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P218:57Charlie Coyle Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (19), Zach Werenski (36)TB 4 – 6 CBJ · CBJ 73% → 89% +16CBJ 73% → 89%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / CBJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- TB: Elo 50.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- CBJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +12 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ 0 Elo | CBJ 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 50.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.3% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 1st of 3219–8 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321581 | Elo rating | 148520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–25 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–25 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 10–0 | 22–12 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–3 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.