Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CBJ.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P18:48Zach Werenski Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (16), Isac Lundeström (5)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:48Zach Werenski Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Damon Severson (16), Isac Lundeström (5)DAL 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 65% +15CBJ 50% → 65%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 50%
- ML DAL -110 / CBJ -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CBJ: Elo 47.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -100
- DAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.3 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +10 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +15 Elo | DAL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 7th of 3215–12 | Road vs home | 11–1224th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 32 |
| 4th of 321542 | Elo rating | 148321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–29 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–27 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 24–26 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–2 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.